Gold Emerges as August's Market Winner and the September Agenda

As August draws to a close in the markets, gold has become the top-performing investment vehicle. In September, inflation data, the Medium-Term Program, and the CBRT interest rate decision will be monitored as critical headings.

Gold Becomes the Top Performer of August

The Borsa Istanbul BIST 100 index gained 8.79% in August, rising to 14,641.56 points and closing above the critical resistance level of 14,600. Gram gold, despite pulling back due to hawkish messages from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, provided a return of close to 12% on a monthly basis.

Foreign Exchange and Deposit Returns Remained Limited

In August, the dollar recorded a limited gain of 1.45% and the euro of 1.95%. The net return of TRY deposits and money market funds remained close to an average of 3%.

Three Critical Agenda Items for September

In September, the markets will focus on three major topics: inflation, the Medium-Term Program, and the CBRT interest rate decision. These data points and decisions are of critical importance for the direction of pricing.

Inflation Data and Disinflation Process

In the August CPI data to be announced on September 3, a monthly increase of around 1.95% is expected. A figure exceeding expectations could heighten concerns regarding inflation rigidity.

Medium-Term Program and Economic Targets

The Medium-Term Program, to be announced on September 7, will serve as the public sector's main economic roadmap. The plan will deliver important messages regarding fundamental macroeconomic targets such as growth and the budget deficit.

CBRT Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy

The CBRT interest rate decision and the messages in the decision text, to be announced on September 10, will be monitored. The CBRT's transition to repo auctions to fund the market at 37% has weakened expectations for new rate cuts.