New Model from MIT Researchers Predicts Future Extreme Events
Experts at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have designed a system that predicts the potential impacts and severity of unprecedented, extraordinary events.
Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have developed a new model capable of predicting previously unseen extreme events, the regions these events might affect, and the damage they could cause.
Development of the New Model
Researchers within MIT have introduced a new model capable of anticipating extraordinary events never encountered before and calculating potential damages.
Functions of the Maps
Each developed map performs two main activities. First, it makes predictions regarding the probable duration and intensity of the event; second, it calculates the areas that could be affected by the severity of the potential situation.
Difference from Existing Risk Models
Current risk models predict what might happen in the future by looking at major disasters that have occurred in the past. However, Chang and Sapsis emphasize that these models fall short precisely because they rely only on past experiences.
Hurricane Katrina Example
To explain the new approach, Sapsis cites Hurricane Katrina as an example. While existing models can be used for events that occur once every 30 to 40 years, they fall short for events of a magnitude that might be seen once in 100 years.
Future Extreme Events
This newly developed model aims to predict in advance how extreme events that could occur in the future might take place and what kind of impacts they could create, even if they have never been experienced before.