BBVA Keeps Turkey's 2026 Growth Forecast Unchanged
BBVA Research maintained Turkey's economy 2026 growth forecast at 3 percent, while announcing that an annual growth of 2.3 percent was recorded in the second quarter of the year.
In an assessment published by BBVA Research, it was reported that Turkey's economy grew by 2.3 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, and total growth in the first half of the year stood at 2.5 percent.
Second Quarter Growth Figures Announced
Turkey's economy recorded a year-on-year growth of 2.3 percent in the second quarter of 2026. While this rate remained below the institution's expectation of 3 percent and the market expectation of 2.9 percent, total growth in the first half of the year was recorded at 2.5 percent.
Third Quarter Leading Indicators and Expectations
Leading indicators point to a weak outlook for the industrial sector in the third quarter, while the agricultural sector is expected to continue supporting economic growth. BBVA's monthly Gross Domestic Product indicator shows that annual growth in this period could be around 3 percent, and quarterly growth between 1.0 and 1.5 percent.
Central Bank Monetary Easing Process
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey initiated the monetary easing process at the end of August by reducing the funding cost by 300 basis points. Following this earlier-than-expected step, the institution expects the CBRT to maintain its prudent stance due to challenges in the inflation outlook.
Medium-Term Program and Risk Factors
The Medium-Term Program, expected to be announced at the beginning of September, is anticipated to provide a clear view of the fiscal policy stance. BBVA Research maintains its growth forecast assuming no escalation in geopolitical tensions, while identifying conflicts in the Middle East as the primary downside risk.