Iran-US War Changes the Balance in Commodity Markets
The war between Iran and the US and geopolitical risks triggered profit-taking in commodity markets, leading to sharp drops in gold and silver prices; experts evaluated the latest situation in the markets.
The war between Iran and the US and geopolitical risks triggered profit-taking in commodity markets, causing sharp declines in gold and silver prices. Experts evaluated the latest situation in the markets.
Developments in Commodity Markets in 2025
The year 2025 witnessed one of the strongest rallies of recent years in commodity markets. While accelerating investments in artificial intelligence and technology increased demand for industrial metals, geopolitical risks and central bank purchases supported gold and silver. Thus, precious metals, industrial metals, and agricultural commodities experienced a pricing process that diverged under the influence of different dynamics.
Historical Performance in Precious Metals
On the precious metals front, gold and silver showed a historical performance. In 2025, ounce gold reached 5,600 dollars and ounce silver reached 120 dollars levels, recording one of the strongest increases of the last half-century. According to Ahlatcı Holding Strategy Director Tonguç Erbaş, this rally was driven by increased gold purchases by central banks as well as geopolitical risks.
War and the Profit-Taking Process
Instead of driving gold prices to new peaks, the Iran-US tension brought about strong profit-taking following the historical rises. The unwinding, especially in leveraged and credit-financed transactions, brought sharp sell-offs in precious metals. During this process, ounce gold dropped from the 5,600 dollar level to 4,000 dollars, and ounce silver fell from 120 dollars to the 60 dollar level.
Status of Industrial and Agricultural Commodities
On the industrial metals side, copper has maintained its steady rise for the past five years, while platinum and palladium experienced sharp losses in value following rapid increases. In agricultural commodities, wheat, rice, corn, soybeans, cotton, and cocoa prices are trading in a more stable band.
Change in Safe Haven Perception
Ahlatcı Holding Strategy Director Tonguç Erbaş stated that during periods of increased geopolitical risks, the safe-haven feature of precious metals like gold comes to the fore, but under current market conditions, this classical tendency has weakened. Investors prefer to stay in cash rather than seek safe havens during periods when risk perception rises.
Central Banks' Gold Demand
Gold and Money Markets Expert Mehmet Ali Yıldırımtürk stated that the confiscation of Russia's assets abroad following the Russia-Ukraine War sent an important message to many countries regarding reserve security. For this reason, countries are reducing US bonds and increasing their gold reserves with the understanding of keeping their reserves under their own control.