Ministry of Trade Announces Foreign Trade Expectation Survey for the Last Quarter
While export expectations experienced a decline in the final quarter of the year, import expectations recorded an upward momentum.
According to the results of the Foreign Trade Expectation Survey published by the Ministry of Trade, the export expectation index declined while the import expectation index increased in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Changes in Export Expectations
According to data shared by the Ministry of Trade, the export expectation index decreased by 4.6 points compared to the previous quarter, falling to 96.9 in the fourth quarter of the year.
Export Index Compared to Last Year
The export expectation index, which was 101.5 in the third quarter of the year, experienced a drop of 8.4 points compared to the same period of last year, realizing at 96.9 in the final quarter.
Factors Influencing the Export Index
While the registered export order level and evaluations regarding the order level over the past three months led to a decline in the index, expectations regarding the upcoming period had a positive impact.
Increase in Import Expectation Index
The import expectation index for the final quarter of the year showed a significant increase compared to the previous quarter, reaching 115.4 with a rise of 12.7 points.
Annual Import Index Comparison
According to the official data announced, the fourth-quarter import expectation index rose by 0.3 points, showing a limited increase when compared to the same period of the previous year.
Trends Affecting Import Items
Expectations for imports and unit prices over the next three months, along with registered order levels, were among the main factors effective in the rise of the import index during this period.