Brazil Presidential Election Will Shape Trade Relations with U.S. and Critical Minerals

Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who will compete in the second round of Brazil's presidential election, are pursuing two completely different strategies in their relations with the U.S.

Final Status Before the Election

Two different visions are colliding in the presidential runoff to be held in Brazil. A critical race is underway between Flavio Bolsonaro, who secured 47 percent of the vote in the first round, and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who garnered 45 percent.

The Balance Between U.S. and China

Brazil's newly elected leader will have to navigate the balances between China and the U.S., the country's largest trading partners. During this process, strategies regarding mineral development, industrialization, and regional cooperation will be determined.

Tariff and Mineral Talks

Brazil and the U.S. have established a working group to conduct tariff and bilateral trade negotiations. In these talks, U.S. access to Brazil's critical minerals and rare earth elements constitutes a major point of contention.

Lula and Bolsonaro Strategies

While Lula's strategy prioritizes multilateralism and ties with the Global South and the BRICS bloc, it is noted that he may face pressure from the right-leaning Congress. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro is criticized for potential risks of concessions regarding strategic minerals while maintaining close relations with the U.S. administration.