El Niño Alarm in the Caribbean: Call for Preparation Against Extreme Heat and Drought
Experts warn that a rapidly strengthening El Niño in the Pacific could lead to a severe drought and record heatwaves in the Caribbean lasting until 2027.
The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) and the Climate Studies Group of the University of the West Indies (UWI CSGM) have called for urgent preparation across the region against severe drought and extreme heat due to the rapidly strengthening El Niño weather phenomenon.
Rapid Strengthening of El Niño and Expectations
CIMH climatologist Dr. Cedric Van Meerbeeck stated that El Niño conditions in the Pacific have been rapidly strengthening since May 2026. Forecasts indicate that very strong El Niño conditions will be experienced during the October-December 2026 period, and this situation will continue to have an effect until March 2027.
Pointing out that the August-October period is the peak of the hot season in the region, experts are concerned that rainfall will remain below normal before the dry season begins in November. Record-level temperatures are expected in the early months of 2027.
Drought and Environmental Risks
El Niño is known to have caused severe droughts in the past, such as in 2009-2010 and 2014-2016. This situation carries the risk of triggering humid heatwaves, forest fires, and increases in sea temperatures that cause coral reef bleaching.
Particularly in the Eastern Caribbean, the Leeward and Windward Islands, the ABC islands, Jamaica, Hispaniola, and certain parts of the Bahamas, severe water deficits and drought conditions are projected to develop by October and November 2026.
Hurricane Season and Other Threats
El Niño generally causes the Atlantic hurricane season to be quieter. Although the 2026 season has started quietly so far, experts warn that even a single strong storm, as in the case of Tropical Storm Erika in 2015, can cause major devastation.
Socio-Economic and Health Impacts
Professor Michael Taylor, Co-Director of the UWI CSGM, characterized this situation as a slow-onset but growing climate disaster. Decreased rainfall and rising temperatures are expected to threaten food security by causing agricultural losses, particularly in Belize and Jamaica.
Additionally, it is emphasized that serious pressures could arise on energy systems, the tourism sector, and global supply chains, alongside health risks such as declining water quality, vector-borne diseases, and heat-related illnesses.