CBRT October Data: Household Inflation Expectation Declined

According to the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's October Sectoral Inflation Expectations report, households' 12-month-ahead annual inflation expectation dropped by 1.85 points to 43.75 percent. In the same period, while the real sector's expectation decreased, an increase was observed in the expectations of market participants.

According to the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Sectoral Inflation Expectations report, market participants' 12-month-ahead annual inflation expectation increased by 0.19 points in October compared to the previous month, rising from 23.70 percent to 23.89 percent. Meanwhile, the real sector's 12-month-ahead annual inflation expectation fell by 0.70 points, declining from 32.50 percent to 31.80 percent. Households' expectation also dropped by 1.85 points, falling from 45.60 percent to 43.75 percent.

The proportion of households predicting that inflation will decline over the next 12 months increased by 0.31 points compared to September, rising from 16.25 percent to 16.56 percent. When examined on an annual basis, market participants' 12-month-ahead inflation expectation, which was 23.26 percent in October 2025, increased by 0.63 points. Over the same period, the real sector's expectation decreased by 4.50 points from the 36.30 percent level in October 2025, while households' expectation decreased by 10.64 points from the 54.39 percent level.