Central Bank's October interest rate decision expectations announced

Prior to the Monetary Policy Committee meeting to be held by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey on October 22, survey results containing economists' interest rate expectations have been published.

October Interest Rate Expectations

A total of 38 brokerage firms, banks, and consultancy institutions participated in the survey organized by Matriks Haber. Out of 37 economists providing forecasts for the October meeting, 32 predicted that the policy rate would be reduced by 100 basis points from 37 percent to 36 percent.

Policy Interest Rates

While two economists in the survey expected the interest rate to remain constant at 37 percent, one predicted a 50, one a 150, and another a 200 basis point cut. The median expectation formed at 36 percent, while the average forecast shaped up to be 36.03 percent.

Interest Rate Corridor and Year-End

According to the median results, borrowing and lending interest rates are also expected to be cut by 100 basis points each, in parallel with the policy rate. For the December meeting, which is the last meeting of the year, the majority anticipates an interest rate cut.

Future Period Projections

Economists' policy interest rate expectation for the end of 2026 was maintained at the 35 percent level, while the median interest rate forecast for the end of 2027 was raised to 28.5 percent. The year-end consumer inflation expectation remained at 29.5 percent.