Fitch Ratings Announces Inflation and Exchange Rate Projections for Turkey
International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings shared its expectations regarding foreign exchange reserves, inflation, exchange rates, and growth for the Turkish economy for 2026 and 2027.
While keeping Turkey's credit rating at "BB-" and the outlook stable, Fitch Ratings updated its forecasts for foreign exchange reserves, inflation, and exchange rates for the upcoming period.
Credit Rating and Outlook
Fitch Ratings officially announced in its assessment that it maintained Turkey's credit rating at "BB-" and its outlook as "Stable".
The agency noted that the partial recovery in foreign exchange reserves and the tight policy mix limit risks, but high inflation pressures persist.
Developments in Foreign Exchange Reserves
It was reported that gross foreign exchange reserves increased by 25 billion dollars from the end of March to September 23, reaching 176 billion dollars.
It was stated that net reserves excluding swaps rose from 16 billion dollars to 45 billion dollars, though these levels remain below certain benchmarks.
Current Account Deficit and Growth Expectations
Along with the effects of the Iran war, Turkey's current account deficit-to-GDP ratio is expected to approach 3 percent in 2026, up from 1.9 percent in 2025.
The country's economic growth rate is projected to be 2.8 percent in 2026 and 4.3 percent in 2027.
Inflation and Exchange Rate Forecasts
According to the data shared by Fitch, year-end inflation expectations were set at 30.5 percent for 2026 and 23.5 percent for 2027.
It was also noted that the dollar/TL parity is projected to reach the level of 51 by the end of 2026 and 60 by the end of 2027.