Fitch Ratings: Global credit risk environment is worsening

International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings announced that the global credit risk environment has worsened following its latest Global Risk Outlook report. It was stated that a deteriorating trend was observed across all core risks in the third quarter of 2026, while market indicators were reported to be giving warning signals. While the rise in bond yields reflects an increase in real interest rates, question marks are growing in stock markets regarding whether artificial intelligence investments may have been overdone.

Fitch Ratings' statement drew attention to the fact that the new chair at the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has adopted a more hawkish monetary policy stance. It was recalled that in September, the Fed decided to raise interest rates unanimously for the first time in three years. Taking into account expectations that another rate hike could be made this year, it was conveyed that the policy rate forecast has been updated to 4.25 percent throughout 2027. In the agency's baseline scenario, bond yields are projected to stabilize and the US 10-year Treasury yield is projected to decline to 4.8 percent by the end of 2027, though a risk remains that yields could materialize above forecasts.

On the other hand, it was pointed out that if disruptions in oil shipments via the Strait of Hormuz continue beyond the first quarter of 2027, higher oil prices than those envisioned in the baseline scenario could be seen. While emphasizing that rapid growth in artificial intelligence-linked investments will remain one of the main agenda items in terms of credit risks, it was stated that a reassessment of expectations to generate revenue from artificial intelligence in the long term could lead to a sharp drop in capital expenditures.