Five Different Scenarios and Calculations for the January 2027 Pension Hike

Five different forecasts have emerged for the hike rate that SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will receive in January 2027, in line with TURKSTAT data and institutions' year-end inflation expectations. The lowest pension, which rose to 23,552 TL in July, has already reached the level of 24,864 TL based on the announced 3-month inflation data.

According to inflation data announced by TURKSTAT, total inflation for the 3-month period covering July, August, and September stood at 5.57 percent. With this rate, the lowest pension, which is still 23,552 TL, reached 24,864 liras for the 3-month period. Prior to the remaining 3-month data, 5 different hike scenarios were calculated over the year-end inflation expectations of the CBRT, MTP, AA Finance, and the Financial Institutions Association.

According to the CBRT Market Participants Survey, 6-month inflation is projected to be approximately 10.08 percent, while the base pension is expected to rise to 25,926 TL. In the scenario where the CBRT's year-end CPI expectation is 28 percent, 6-month inflation stands at 8.70 percent, bringing the lowest pension to 25,601 TL. Based on the Medium-Term Program's 28.4 percent inflation forecast, the pension is projected to reach 25,681 TL with a 9.04 percent hike; according to AA Finance's 29.66 percent estimate, it is projected to reach 25,933 TL with a 10.11 percent hike; and according to the Financial Institutions Association's 30.39 percent index, it is projected to reach 26,079 TL with a 10.73 percent hike.