Four Different Scenarios for January Pension and Civil Servant Raises

Following the July and August inflation data, four distinct scenarios based on expectations from the Central Bank, PKA, AA Finans, and FKB have emerged regarding the raise rates to be reflected in the salaries of millions of civil servants and retirees in the January 2027 period.

July and August Inflation Finalized

July inflation was announced by TÜİK as 1.78 percent and August inflation as 1.84 percent. Thus, the total inflation rate for the July and August period stood at 3.66 percent.

While these announced data form the basis for calculations to be made in the remaining months of the year, they also provided the first clues for the January raise of civil servants and retirees.

Central Bank Forecast and First Scenario

According to the Central Bank's 28 percent CPI forecast, six-month inflation is expected to be 8.7 percent.

Under this scenario, it is projected that SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees could receive an 8.7 percent raise, while civil servants could receive a 6.67 percent raise.

Market Participants Survey Scenario

According to the Central Bank Market Participants Survey, the year-end inflation forecast materialized at 29.43 percent.

Based on this rate, the raise for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees is calculated as 9.91 percent, and the raise for civil servants and civil servant retirees as 7.86 percent.

AA Finans Expectation Survey Results

The AA Finans Inflation Expectation Survey forecasts year-end inflation to be 29.49 percent.

In line with this forecast, it is stated that the raise rate for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will be 9.97 percent, and for civil servants and civil servant retirees, 7.91 percent.

Financial Institutions Association Expectation

In the Financial Institutions Association research, the year-end inflation expectation was announced as 30.47 percent.

In this final scenario based on the highest rate, the raise for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees can reach 10.8 percent, and for civil servants and retirees, 8.73 percent.