Global Warming is Set to Exceed the 1.5-Degree Threshold

According to a new report published by the United Nations Environment Programme in Nairobi, the global temperature increase is expected to exceed 1.5 degrees in the coming years. The report outlines a roadmap to limit the peak temperature increase and bring temperatures back below 1.5 degrees.

Key Facts Revealed by the Report

The new report titled 'Limiting Overshoot', prepared by the United Nations Environment Programme, states that the global temperature increase is likely to exceed 1.5 degrees within the next few years.

Although this brings climate risks and impacts to dangerous dimensions, it is still considered possible to achieve the global goals of the Paris Agreement and bring temperatures back down.

Temperature Overshoot Scenarios and Risks

While the most optimistic scenario in the report predicts that the temperature increase will peak at 1.8 degrees above pre-industrial levels, other scenarios point to higher peaks.

Every fraction above 1.5 degrees increases climate impacts and the risk of irreversible tipping points, such as the destabilization of ice sheets.

Path to Lowering Peak Temperatures

To limit the peak temperature increase and eventually bring temperatures back below 1.5 degrees over time, an overshoot, peak, and decline pathway is presented as the best option.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres stated that the extreme weather events experienced this summer serve as a warning, demanding that any overshoot above 1.5 degrees be kept as small and brief as possible.

Required Policies and Global Action

This roadmap requires urgent and sustained cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, including methane, toward net zero, supported by carbon dioxide removal.

UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen emphasized that there is no good outcome left above 1.5 degrees, calling for climate action to be doubled and stating that adaptation and mitigation must go hand in hand.