Goldman Sachs: AI to Drive US Investments in 2027

Goldman Sachs stated on Wednesday that artificial intelligence-focused hardware and intellectual property spending will surge to an annualized $1.4 trillion by the end of 2027, a figure equivalent to about 4% of the US economy.

Goldman Sachs estimated that AI spending will exceed $900 billion by the end of 2026, emphasizing that it will remain a primary driver of business investment growth in 2027. This projection was shared at a time when there are concerns that capital expenditures might be constrained due to rising borrowing costs and debt-driven expansion efforts.

Although Democrats' victories in this month's US midterm elections have raised concerns about stricter regulation of data center development, Goldman Sachs stated that this outcome carries limited risks for AI investments. The company estimates that AI investments will directly boost 2027 capital expenditure growth (including semiconductor investments) by 5.3 percentage points and US GDP growth by 0.6 percentage points.

Noting that semiconductor investments are undercounted in business investment statistics and that much of the computing equipment is imported and subtracted from GDP, the institution recorded that excluding semiconductors, AI-focused investments would boost capital expenditure growth by 4.3 percentage points and GDP growth by only 0.2 percentage points. Goldman projected that US business investments will grow at a quarterly rate of 8% in 2027, pointing to nearly double the market consensus estimate of 4.2%.