Goldman Sachs analysis: CBRT reserves decreased by 30 billion dollars in 12 months
Investment bank Goldman Sachs evaluated Turkey's August current account balance data, drawing attention to the annual decline in reserves and the year-end deficit.
US-based investment bank Goldman Sachs reported in an analysis published regarding Turkey's August current account balance data that CBRT reserves recorded a decline of approximately 30 billion dollars over the last 12 months.
August Current Account Balance Data
According to data announced by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, the current account registered a surplus of 4 billion 53 million dollars in August, reaching its highest monthly level in the past year.
The net errors and omissions item increased from 515 million dollars in July to an increase of 4 billion 520 million dollars in August.
Change in Central Bank Reserves
The CBRT's total reserves decreased by 3 billion 816 million dollars in the week of October 2 compared to the previous week, declining to 167 billion 388 million dollars.
While the total drop over a six-week period reached 21.1 billion dollars, the Goldman Sachs analysis emphasized that within a broader framework, a decline of approximately 30 billion dollars was experienced over the last 12 months.
Financial Developments and Capital Movements
The report drew attention to the fact that an outflow of 1.4 billion dollars was experienced in August under the financial account due to the impact of net portfolio outflows.
In addition, it was stated that the 4.5 billion dollar inflow in the net errors and omissions item, together with the 4.1 billion dollar current account surplus, contributed around 7 billion dollars to the reserves.
Factors Affecting the Current Account Balance
It was noted that the improvement seen in the current account balance stemmed largely from the decrease in core goods imports and the seasonal increase in tourism revenues.
According to the bank's evaluation, potential annual declines in the number of tourists could exert pressure on the current account balance, particularly starting from 2027.
Year-End Current Account Deficit Expectation
Goldman Sachs expects Turkey's year-end current account deficit to correspond to 2.9 percent of the gross domestic product and reach approximately 50 billion dollars.
The report noted that the announced ratio remains below historical averages, but the total amount continues to maintain its importance in terms of the country's external financing need.