IMF and WTO Data: Political Changes in South Asia Do Not Guarantee Economic Recovery

Data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) revealed that economic recovery in South Asia has followed an uneven trajectory following major political shifts and leadership transitions in countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and Nepal.

Pakistan

In Pakistan, economic indicators saw a sharp slowdown following the removal of former Prime Minister Imran Khan through a vote of no confidence in April 2022. The country's GDP growth fell from 6.2 percent in 2022 to -0.2 percent in 2023, before reaching 2.6 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025. Inflation rose from 8.9 percent in 2021 to 29.2 percent in 2023, and fell to 23.4 percent in 2024. In foreign trade, exports decreased by 7.9 percent and imports by 29.2 percent in 2023.

Bangladesh

Bangladesh recorded 4.2 percent GDP growth in 2024, the year Sheikh Hasina was ousted from power amid mass student-led protests. The following year, the growth rate stood at 3.5 percent, while an interim administration led by Muhammad Yunus, who supported the protests that toppled Hasina, took office. Inflation rose from 9.7 percent in 2024 to 10 percent in 2025, while merchandise exports increased by 1.9 percent in 2025, rising from $47.25 billion to $48.17 billion.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka experienced a deep economic contraction in 2022, the year former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa resigned amid an economic crisis. GDP contracted by 7.3 percent in 2022 and 2 percent in 2023, while registering 5 percent growth in each of 2024 and 2025. Inflation, which was 45.2 percent in 2022, declined to 17.4 percent in 2023 and 1.2 percent in 2024; data recorded inflation at -0.5 percent in 2025. Merchandise exports fell from $13.11 billion in 2022 to $11.91 billion in 2023, and Anura Kumara Dissanayake was elected president in September 2024.

Maldives

In the Maldives, where Mohamed Muizzu became president in November 2023, GDP growth was recorded at 5.1 percent in 2023, slowed to 3.3 percent in 2024, and rose to 6.3 percent in 2025. The country's current account deficit stood at 16.9 percent in 2022 and rose to 21.2 percent in 2023, falling to 17.8 percent in 2024 and 6.1 percent in 2025. Merchandise exports fell by approximately 9 percent in 2024, while service exports increased by 12 percent. Additionally, the Maldives paid off the final tranche of bonds held by the State Bank of India, settling its $150 million debt to India in September.

Nepal

Nepal experienced a political transition in September 2025 following the resignation of KP Sharma Oli and Balendra Shah becoming prime minister in March 2026. While Oli's ouster was triggered by Gen Z protests, available data recorded 4.4 percent GDP growth and 4.1 percent inflation in 2025. Merchandise exports surged by 75.6 percent the same year, increasing from $1.32 billion to $2.31 billion.