Inflation expectations remain stable in the US while unemployment concerns rise to record levels

According to the results of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's October Survey of Consumer Expectations, short, medium, and long-term inflation expectations remained unchanged, while concerns regarding an increase in the unemployment rate reached their highest level since April 2020.

The results of the October Survey of Consumer Expectations, conducted with approximately 1,300 households in the US, have been announced. According to the survey, the median inflation expectation for the next 12 months remained unchanged from the previous month at 3.9 percent, while the medium-term expectation was recorded at 3.3 percent and the long-term expectation at 3 percent. The median expectation for the increase in housing prices also remained stable at 3 percent.

When examining price increase expectations for basic expenditure items, the expectation for gasoline prices decreased by 0.6 points to 4.2 percent, while the expectation for food prices remained at 5.5 percent. The expectation for cost increases in healthcare services rose to 9.3 percent, the expectation for university education costs to 7.6 percent, and the expectation for rent increases to 7.7 percent.

Expectations regarding the labor market showed divergent trends. The average expectation that the unemployment rate in the country will rise within the next year increased by 1.4 points to 45.3 percent, reaching its highest level since April 2020. The probability of participants losing their jobs in the next 12 months rose to 13.9 percent, while the probability of finding a new job if they were to lose their current one increased to 46.5 percent. While the expected median increase in household income fell to 3 percent, the expectation for expenditure growth for the coming period was determined to be 5.3 percent.