Dr. Nuri Sevgen's Assessment on Distrust in Global and Domestic Markets

While pessimism towards technology stocks and commodity sell-offs continue in global markets, fund liquidation processes and regulatory changes deepen liquidity and trust issues in the domestic market. Dr. Nuri Sevgen made evaluations regarding Borsa Istanbul and CBRT interest rate expectations.

While sharp declines are experienced in US and Asian stock markets globally, the high cost of artificial intelligence investments and the time required for them to turn into profitability are putting pressure on technology stocks. Dr. Nuri Sevgen stated that margin calls in leveraged funds triggered sales in commodities such as gold and silver, leading investors to turn to US 10-year bonds.

In the domestic market, a legislative bill containing portfolio blocking (PBLK) and fund liquidation processes, which is being discussed in the General Assembly of the TBMM, has led to a fund crisis. The blocking of accounts of investors who placed sell orders has deepened the trust issue, creating pressure on brokerage firms and portfolio management companies.

While the 12,000 level is being monitored as critical resistance in the Borsa İstanbul BIST 100 index, there is a risk of a decline towards the 11,000 levels. While the BIST All index dropped from 79,000 to 39,000, losses exceeding 65% were seen in the IPO index, and companies' book values fell to 0.20 - 0.30 levels.

Sevgen calculated that an expectation of a 100 basis point CBRT interest rate cut prevails in the market, and if the policy rate is pulled down to 36%, approximately 4 points of real return will remain assuming 30% inflation. Forecasting that the BIST 100 index could stay above 10,000 points at the end of the year, Sevgen advised investors to focus on the fundamental ratios of companies.