Moody's Global Economic Report: 2026 Growth Forecast and Inflation Outlook

Moody's has released a new report projecting that the global economy will slow from a 2.8 percent growth rate in 2025 to 2.6 percent in 2026, a level expected to be maintained until 2028.

According to the report, while advanced economies are expected to grow by an average of 1.7 percent in 2027, the growth rate in emerging markets is projected to fall from 4.5 percent in 2025 to approximately 4 percent in 2027. In energy markets, oil prices are expected to hover near the upper limit of the 90-110 dollar per barrel range.

In the context of combating inflation, it is assessed that central banks may prefer more moderate interest rate hikes rather than prolonged, aggressive tightening. The process of a significant decline in headline inflation is expected to begin in mid-2027.

Artificial intelligence and data center investments are projected to reach approximately 1 trillion dollars in 2027, maintaining their high level. However, the growth rate of capital expenditures by major technology companies in these areas is estimated to slow from 100 percent in 2026 to 25 percent in 2027.