October 2026 Economic Confidence Index and Politics Relationship Data Announced

According to data announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) for October 2026, the Economic Confidence Index was 97.33, while the Consumer Confidence Index was recorded at the 84.82 level.

As of the October 2026 period, the Economic Confidence Index announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) took a value of 97.33, while the Consumer Confidence Index was realized at 84.82. In the period between January 2007 and October 2026, the index saw a high of 115 and a low of 51. While the 19-year average value was calculated as 100, the monthly standard deviation exhibited a stable appearance at the 9.7 level. The index had fallen below 60 during the US-originated global credit crisis and the 2020 Covid-19 period.

Rates belonging to different sectors are used in the calculation of the Economic Confidence Index, which is a composite indicator. In this context, the Real Sector Manufacturing Industry Confidence Index calculated by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has a weight of 40%, the Services Sector Confidence Index calculated by TURKSTAT has a weight of 30%, the Consumer Confidence Index prepared jointly by TURKSTAT and CBRT has a weight of 20%, the Retail Trade Sector Confidence Index has a weight of 5%, and the Construction Sector Confidence Index has a weight of 5%. While a value of 100 in the indices is considered the threshold (neutral), values above this level indicate optimism, and values below indicate pessimism and a cautious outlook.

Assessment: It is stated that before past general elections, the confidence level was increased through public spending, interest rates, and credit incentives, and after the elections, a downward drop was observed in the indices as economic reality came to light. While it is expressed that security concerns lay behind the mobility seen in the two elections in 2015 and similar fluctuations were experienced after 2018, it is evaluated that the downward trend in the indices may continue if the fund fraud and market manipulation operations that have been ongoing since September are not clarified.