Polar vortex collapsed in November: What are the winter scenarios for Turkey?

The polar vortex surrounding the cold air in the North Pole has weakened and collapsed suddenly in November, a process normally expected to occur later in the winter. Scientists describe this as "sudden stratospheric warming," and it is considered an anomaly that could affect the general course of the winter season.

The early collapse of the polar vortex increases the risk of massive trapped cold air masses moving southward. Experts state that whether this situation will affect Turkey depends on the route the cold air will follow.

Assessment: Two main scenarios stand out in the analyses conducted via atmospheric models. According to the first scenario, if cold air masses enter Turkey via the Balkans, severe cold and heavy snowfall may be seen in the northern, inner, and eastern parts of the country. In the second scenario, it is predicted that if the system shifts toward Western Europe or North America, its impact on Turkey will decrease. The route the system will follow will become clear within the next 2-3 weeks.