Presidential election in Bulgaria: Ukraine war and economy on the agenda

As the people of Bulgaria head to the polls to determine the country's new president, the election campaign has centered around the war in Ukraine, security concerns in the Black Sea, and mounting economic issues. In the election featuring a record number of 27 candidates, incumbent President Iliana Yotova and former caretaker Prime Minister Andrey Gyurov stand out as the leading figures.

The presidential election held on Sunday in Bulgaria marks the first major political test for Prime Minister Rumen Radev's Progressive Bulgaria Party since it emerged first in the April parliamentary elections. According to polling forecasts, incumbent President Iliana Yotova, who is supported by Radev and opposes military aid to Ukraine while advocating for dialogue with Moscow, is expected to receive vote shares ranging between 41 and 47 percent. Andrey Gyurov, a former central bank deputy governor and former caretaker prime minister supported by pro-Western opposition parties, is projected to win 28 to 31 percent of the vote. Kostadin Kostadinov, the leader of the pro-Russian far-right Vazrazhdane Party, is expected to place third with a 10 to 13 percent vote share.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine and rising tensions in the Black Sea have been decisive during the electoral process. Drone attacks targeting commercial vessels off the coast of Bulgaria have heightened security concerns in the EU and NATO member country, prompting the government to seek assistance from its allies to strengthen maritime security. Candidates have also tried to address public anxieties regarding the cost of living during this period of soaring energy prices and inflation. With voter turnout estimated to remain below 50 percent and around 40 percent, this indicates that the election will likely head to a second round on November 1st.