The rise in non-performing loan ratios and expectations for the Central Bank's interest rate decision
Rising non-performing loan ratios in SME and individual loans, coupled with a fund crisis, are putting pressure on the Central Bank's October 22 interest rate decision. Markets are evaluating the possibility of a 1.5 percentage point cut.
While non-performing loan ratios in bank loans continue their upward trend, this rate has reached 4.04% for SME loans and 5.15% for individual loans. Payment difficulties stemming from the economic contraction and the fund crisis are shaping the agenda for the Central Bank's meeting on October 22.
While the judicial process regarding the fund fraud continues, Türkiye Sigorta General Manager Taha Çakmak was forced to resign, and his assets were seized. The decline in industrial production and payment difficulties deepened by the fund crisis are among the main challenges facing economic management.
Assessment: Expectations in the markets are increasing that the Central Bank may implement a 1.5 percentage point interest rate cut at the October 22 meeting. However, these forecasts are being shaped under the pressure created by current economic data.