Thwaites Glacier research: Sea level may rise faster than expected

A new scientific study conducted on Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier showed that the ice-ocean boundary, previously assumed to be fixed in computer models, continuously moves due to tides, allowing warm ocean water to penetrate deeper areas and accelerate melting. According to the study published in Nature Communications, even without any additional increase in ocean temperatures, the glacier could raise global sea levels by approximately 3 centimeters by 2100.

The Thwaites Glacier, which is the size of Florida in West Antarctica and responsible for four percent of global sea level rise, was examined by researchers from the University of California and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Using a newly developed computer model, the region where the ice detaches from the sea floor and begins to float was analyzed. It was determined that this boundary, previously assumed to be fixed in older models, moves with the tides according to satellite data, causing warm ocean water to advance kilometers beneath the glacier.

Lead author of the study Mattia Poinelli stated that this moving region was not adequately represented in previous models. The new findings revealed that even without additional increases in ocean temperatures, sea level rise projections by 2100 could reach twice that of previous models, or approximately 3 centimeters. Additionally, the probability of detachment from the Mouginot Ridge by 2100 is calculated to be around 60 percent. It is anticipated that if the glacier melts completely, it could raise sea levels by about 65 centimeters, and through a cascading effect, this increase could reach 3 meters in the long term.