Trade wars expected to intensify after US midterm elections

While uncertainties regarding protectionist policies and customs tariffs in global trade continue, the Allianz Trade "Economic Outlook 2026-2028" report revealed that harsher steps could be taken in trade policies following the US midterm elections in November. According to the report, the process dubbed "China Shock 2.0" is changing global supply chains as Chinese companies redirect their exports to Europe and the Global South due to US tariffs and weak domestic demand in China.

The report stated that the process described as "China Shock 2.0" puts pressure on European economies, noting that Europe faces increasing competitive pressure and declining export opportunities due to US tariffs. It was recorded that export losses linked to US-applied tariffs amounted to 74 billion dollars in 2025, and are expected to reach 42 billion dollars in 2026.

While it is estimated that the average customs tariff rate could rise up to 21.3 percent in negative scenarios, new tariffs targeting China's overproduction, the opening of new investigations regarding the routing of Chinese-origin products through third countries, and ongoing trade tensions with Canada were cited among the main risks. Assessment: Prof. Dr. Arzu Al, a faculty member in the Department of International Political Economy at Marmara University, stated in an evaluation to the AA correspondent that it would not be surprising for trade wars to intensify after the midterm elections in the US.