Warren Buffett's 10-year bet against hedge funds reaches 233% return

Following the 10-year investment bet undertaken by world-renowned investor Warren Buffett against hedge funds in 2007, the total return of funds tracking the S&P 500 index reached 233 percent as of October 2026.

The process, which began in December 2007 with Warren Buffett's assertion that low-cost funds tracking the S&P 500 index would yield higher returns than professional hedge funds, spanned the years 2008-2017. In the challenge accepted by Protégé Partners manager Ted Seides, Seides selected five fund baskets while Buffett chose Vanguard's S&P 500 index fund. In the first year, due to the global financial crisis, the index fund lost 37 percent of its value while its rivals performed better; however, the picture changed over the subsequent nine years, and by the end of 2017, Buffett's choice yielded a total return of 125.8 percent.

Following the conclusion of the bet in 2017, the upward trend of S&P 500 index funds continued. According to calculations based on the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, 10,000 dollars invested on December 29, 2017, rose to approximately 33,300 dollars as of October 2026, with dividends reinvested. The total return during this period amounted to 233 percent, with an annualized compound return of approximately 15 percent.