August Inflation Data and Interest Rate Cut Expectations
As markets focus on the August inflation data to be released tomorrow, experts evaluated the potential effects of the figures on the interest rate cut schedule.
The August inflation data, eagerly awaited by the economic world, will be released tomorrow. Pusula Yatırım Chief Economist Assoc. Prof. Dr. Filiz Eryılmaz stated that she expects monthly inflation to be at 1.93 percent.
Expected Inflation Rates
All eyes in the markets are turned to the August inflation data, which will be released tomorrow.
Pusula Yatırım Chief Economist Assoc. Prof. Dr. Filiz Eryılmaz stated that the main market expectation is around 2 percent, while her own expectation stands at 1.93 percent.
TSI and Istanbul Inflation
Although Istanbul inflation materialized at 1.66 percent, it is known that TSI (Turkish Statistical Institute) inflation generally comes in above this figure in August.
Experts emphasize that, given this situation, the probability of a figure below 2 percent is strong.
Interest Rate Cut Expectations
It is stated that inflation data remaining well below expectations and indicating an improvement in the main trend could significantly strengthen expectations for an interest rate cut.
However, it is stated that the resurgence of war and oil prices rising to 95 dollars and above could complicate the interest rate cut process.
Possible Scenarios and Markets
It is evaluated that an interest rate cut does not look easy in September under the current conjuncture, and the cut might remain for October.
It is said that if monthly inflation comes in above 2.2 percent, expectations for an interest rate cut could be postponed and this could create pressure on the stock market.
Items Expected to Show the Highest Increase
In August, an increase of 5 percent in the education group and 6 percent in alcohol, beverages, and tobacco is expected.
In the transportation sector, an increase in the 5 to 6 percent band is projected, and it is stated that these items will be among the groups showing the strongest increase in monthly inflation.