August Inflation Expectations and January 2027 Pension Scenarios
Ahead of the August inflation figures to be announced by TÜİK, three different scenarios are becoming clear for the January 2027 pension increase based on CBRT and market forecasts.
Three different raise scenarios are coming to the forefront for the January 2027 pension calculations in line with the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's year-end inflation forecast and market expectations. Economists' average inflation expectation for August is calculated at 1.86 percent.
August Inflation Expectations
According to the survey conducted by AA Finans with the participation of 20 economists, CPI is expected to increase by 1.86 percent in August. Economists' expectations for this period range between 1.25 percent and 2.10 percent.
If the average expectation is realized, annual inflation, which was 31.75 percent in July, is projected to decline to 31.52 percent in August.
Previous Period Inflation Rates
Inflation in the first six-month period of 2026 was realized at 17.76 percent. This rate directly determined the raise rate received by SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees in July.
An increase of 13.52 percent was made in the monthly salaries and wages of public officials and retired civil servants in the same period.
Year-End Inflation Forecasts
While the CBRT updated its year-end inflation forecast to 28 percent, the market participants' expectation stands at 29.43 percent.
In the Economic Outlook Index prepared in cooperation with the Financial Institutions Association and Istanbul University, the year-end inflation forecast was announced as 30.32 percent.
January 2027 Pension Raise Scenarios
If the CBRT's 28 percent forecast is realized, the six-month inflation in the second half of 2026 is expected to be approximately 8.70 percent. Under market participants' expectation of 29.43 percent, this rate reaches 9.92 percent.
If the 30.32 percent forecast in the Economic Outlook Index is realized, the six-month inflation is projected to be around 10.67 percent.
Lowest Pension Calculations
According to current calculations, the raise rate that SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will receive in January 2027 is expected to be between 8.70 percent and 10.67 percent.
The lowest pension, which is currently 23,552 liras, is projected to rise to approximately 25,601 liras under the 8.70 percent raise scenario.