Commerzbank Economist Criticizes CBRT Inflation Forecasts

Commerzbank economist Tatha Ghose criticized the monetary policy and inflation forecasting practices of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), stating that delayed updates of forecasts negatively impact market confidence and expectations.

Market Expectations and Delayed Updates

Commerzbank economist Tatha Ghose stated that the primary purpose of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's forecasts is to anchor market expectations and ensure stability, but in the current picture, the CBRT has surrendered with a delay.

Ghose noted that in an environment where private sector economists continuously update their inflation forecasts ahead of the central bank, the CBRT's practice of updating only during Inflation Report periods negatively affects market perception.

Warnings on the Perception of Inflation Reports

It was warned that if this situation continues, market participants will begin to view Inflation Reports and medium-term targets not as dynamic forecasting tools, but merely as periodic presentation documents.

Year-End Inflation Forecast Revision

In the Inflation Report announced on August 13, the CBRT raised its year-end inflation forecast from 26 percent to 28 percent, citing geopolitical uncertainties and volatility in oil, natural gas, and food prices.

Ghose noted in his prepared report that a similar picture is encountered every year, and that the Turkish Central Bank sets out with an optimistic forecast at the beginning of the year but gradually revises the figure upward as the target approaches.

Similar Patterns in Previous Years

The report drew attention to the fact that the exact same forecast revision pattern was clearly experienced in the years 2024 and 2025 as well.