Economists' Expectations Announced Ahead of TÜİK's August Inflation Data
Ahead of the August inflation data from TÜİK, closely monitored by the markets, the average expectation of economists was calculated at 1.86 percent.
Ahead of the August inflation data to be released by the Turkish Statistical Institute on Thursday, economists' average consumer inflation expectation was determined at the level of 1.86 percent.
August Inflation Expectations
The Turkish Statistical Institute will share the inflation data for August with the public on Thursday at 10:00 AM.
Prior to the data release, economists' forecasts vary between 1.25 percent and 2.10 percent.
Annual Inflation Forecast
If market expectations materialize at a rate of 1.86 percent, annual inflation, which was 31.75 percent in July, is projected to decline to 31.52 percent in August.
Increases in Fuel Prices
Prof. Dr. Hakkı Hakan Yılmaz emphasized that average gasoline prices increased by 10.7 percent and diesel prices by 14.4 percent in August.
It was stated that the direct contribution of these increases to monthly inflation stood at 0.33 percentage points.
Impacts of Energy Costs
In the January-August period, diesel prices rose by 47.5 percent and gasoline prices by 33.2 percent.
It was reported that the direct contribution of this rise in fuel prices to the eight-month inflation was 1.25 points.
Secondary Price Effects and Risks
It was noted that high energy costs could also reflect on other goods and services prices and shorten the duration of deterioration in pricing behaviors.
It was recorded that if the secondary effect in August turns out to be 1.33 points, the total effect could reach 1.66 points on a monthly basis.
September and Year-End Warnings
It was conveyed that exiting the sliding scale system (eşel mobil) in fuel prices starting from September and educational expenditures could create pressure on inflation.
Warnings were issued that year-end inflation could exceed 32 percent even in the optimistic scenario.