Fed rate expectation from Bank of America: Rate may exceed 5 percent
While Bank of America economists expect two rate hikes in October and December, strategists predict that the rate could exceed 5 percent due to inflation pressures.
As expectations for the US Federal Reserve's interest rate policy are updated, Bank of America economists expect two 25 basis point hikes in October and December, while the bank's strategists predict that the policy rate could rise above 5 percent due to inflation and a strong economy.
Rate Expectations for the Remainder of the Year
Bank of America economists expect the Fed to implement two more 25 basis point rate hikes at its October and December meetings.
If these steps are realized, the policy rate is projected to finish the end of the year in the range of 4.25 percent to 4.50 percent.
September Decision and Tightening Process
The Fed raised the policy rate to the 3.75-4.00 percent range at its September meeting, and the decision was taken unanimously by the Federal Open Market Committee.
BofA analysts defend the view that the tightening process will continue following the step in September.
Strong Demand in the Economy and Inflation
The annual increase of 6.3 percent in nominal consumer spending points to the persistence of demand-driven pressure on inflation.
The fact that the increase in spending remains above the 5 percent level reinforces the risk that core inflation will hover above the target.
Hawkish Scenario of Strategists
Bank of America's interest rate strategists point to a more hawkish scenario compared to the economists' forecast.
It is evaluated that the policy rate could rise above 5 percent if inflation pressures persist and the economy remains strong.