Five Different Scenarios Determined for the Lowest Pension Based on Year-End Inflation

Following the announcement of the September inflation data by TÜİK, calculations for the raise that SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will receive in January have accelerated. Five different scenarios have emerged for the lowest pension in line with year-end inflation forecasts.

September Inflation Figures

According to TÜİK data, the consumer price index increased by 1.84 percent on a monthly basis in September.

While the annual inflation rate was recorded at 29.73 percent, the three-month inflation in the second half of the year rose to 5.57 percent.

Method of Calculating the January Raise

The January raise for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will be determined based on the total six-month inflation rate to be realized in the second half of the year.

The exact raise rate will become clear with the announcement of inflation data for October, November, and December.

Central Bank and MTP Forecasts

In the scenario where the Central Bank raises its year-end inflation expectation to 28 percent, the six-month inflation is expected to be 8.70 percent.

According to the 28.4 percent forecast in the Medium-Term Program, the six-month inflation rate is projected to be 9.04 percent.

Survey and Institution Expectations

In the Market Participants Survey, the year-end expectation is 29.61 percent, with a projected six-month inflation of 10.06 percent, while this rate is calculated as 10.11 percent in the AA Finance survey.

According to the Financial Institutions Association's forecast, the six-month inflation rate is projected at 10.73 percent.

Possible New Pension Ranges

Calculations were made based on the current lowest pension of 23,552 Turkish Liras.

It is stated that if the forecasts are realized, the new monthly amount could range between approximately 25,600 Turkish Liras and 26,100 Turkish Liras.