Four Different Scenarios for SSK and Bağ-Kur Retirees' January 2027 Raise
Calculations were made for the January 2027 salary increase of SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees in line with the Medium-Term Program, Central Bank, market expectation, and Economic Outlook Index data.
The rate of increase that SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will receive in January 2027 will be finalized with the inflation data for the second half of 2026. In line with current economic indicators and forecasts, four different scenarios have been put on the table for new salaries.
July Inflation and the First Two Months
According to the data announced in July, inflation for the first six months of the year materialized at 17.76 percent, and this rate was reflected as a raise on retiree pensions. With this increase, the lowest retiree pension rose to 23,552 liras.
With July inflation at 1.78 percent and August inflation at 1.84 percent, the inflation for the first two months of the second half of the year reached 3.65 percent. The data for the remaining four months is awaited.
Medium-Term Program Forecast
In the Medium-Term Program, the year-end inflation target for 2026 was announced as 28.4 percent. If this target is met, the six-month inflation in the second half of the year is expected to be 9.04 percent.
If this scenario comes true, it is projected that the lowest retiree pension of 23,552 liras will rise to approximately 25,681 liras.
Central Bank Inflation Report
In the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's third Inflation Report, the year-end 2026 CPI forecast was set at 28 percent. If inflation remains at this level, the six-month inflation is calculated to be approximately 8.70 percent.
If this rate is applied, the lowest retiree pension will increase from 23,552 liras to approximately 25,601 liras.
Market Participants Survey
In the Market Participants Survey, the year-end 2026 inflation expectation was announced at the level of 29.43 percent. If this expectation is realized, it is estimated that the inflation in the second half of the year will be 9.92 percent.
Along with this rate, it is calculated that the lowest retiree pension will reach approximately 25,888 liras.
Economic Outlook Index
In the Economic Outlook Index prepared in cooperation with the Financial Institutions Association and Istanbul University, the year-end inflation expectation was included as 30.32 percent. With the realization of this forecast, the six-month inflation will be 10.67 percent.
In such a scenario, it is projected that the lowest retiree pension will rise to approximately 26,065 liras.