Four Different Scenarios for the January 2027 Retiree Raise Based on MTP and Inflation Forecasts
Four separate raise rates have been calculated for the January 2027 salary increases of SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees in line with announced official inflation expectations.
New calculations for the raise that millions of SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will receive in the January 2027 period have taken shape based on the Medium-Term Program and Central Bank data, clarifying four different figures on the table.
July and August Data
While total inflation in July for the first six-month period of 2026 was realized at the level of 17.76 percent, the lowest retiree pension was calculated as 23,552 liras.
According to TÜİK data, CPI increased by 1.78 percent in July and 1.84 percent monthly in August, reaching an annual rate of 31.51 percent, and a 3.65 percent raise rate has already formed.
Inflation Forecasts
While the year-end 2026 inflation was announced as 28.4 percent in the Medium-Term Program, the CBRT's year-end CPI expectation was announced as 28 percent and at 29.43 percent in the Market Participants Survey.
According to the 30.32 percent forecast in the Economic Outlook Index, six-month inflation is expected to be realized at the 10.67 percent level.
Formed Raise Rates
In the event that the MTP forecast is realized, the raise rate in January 2027 will be at the level of 9.04 percent.
According to the CBRT's 28 percent forecast, six-month inflation is projected to be approximately 8.70 percent, and according to the 29.43 percent expectation, it is projected to be 9.92 percent.
Base Salary Calculations
The lowest retiree pension, which is currently 23,552 liras, is expected to rise to 25,601 liras with an 8.7 percent raise.
According to the MTP forecast, it is calculated to rise to 25,681 liras with a 9.04 percent raise, to 25,888 liras with a 9.92 percent raise, and to 26,065 liras with a 10.67 percent raise.