Goldman Sachs expects no interest rate cut from CBRT for October 22 meeting

Goldman Sachs announced that it does not expect an interest rate cut at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting to be held by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey on October 22, contrary to market expectations.

October Meeting Expectation

Goldman Sachs shared its expectations regarding the Monetary Policy Committee meeting that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey will hold on October 22.

The institution stated that, contrary to the market consensus, it does not foresee any change in the policy rate at this meeting.

Repo Window and Normalization

The Central Bank's reopening of the repo window and lowering of the reference interest rate had been evaluated as a surprise in the markets.

The CBRT defined this step not as an easing cycle but as the normalization of the operational framework, and Goldman Sachs also drew attention to this situation.

Inflation and Reserve Developments

The institution cited the inflation outlook and developments in reserves among the primary reasons for acting cautiously regarding an interest rate cut.

It was stated that core inflation has only recently started to return to its course prior to the shock in energy prices and that household expectations remain high.

Financial Stability and Investor Attitude

Goldman Sachs emphasized that a potential interest rate cut move on October 22 could pose risks in terms of financial stability.

It was noted that no significant increase confirming a strong expectation of an interest rate cut was observed in foreign investors' bond positions.