Interest Rate Forecasts for the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey from BofA and HSBC
International financial institutions Bank of America and HSBC shared new analyses on the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's potential interest rate moves and inflation expectations.
Bank of America and HSBC shared their expectations regarding the monetary policy decisions and future interest rates of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). The two global banks presented differing projections for the September meeting and year-end forecasts.
Repo Auctions and Normalization Process
The resumption of one-week repo auctions by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, which had been paused following the war in the Middle East, was evaluated as a normalization step in liquidity management.
Bank of America's September Expectation
Bank of America drew attention to the strong recovery in reserves and the slowdown in domestic demand, stating that it does not expect a direct change in the policy rate in September.
BofA's October and Year-End Projections
The bank anticipates that the CBRT will make its only direct interest rate cut of 2026 in October, lowering the policy rate to 36 percent.
HSBC's Different Rate Schedule
HSBC Economics, based on market pricing, expects the CBRT to resume interest rate cuts in September and the rate to drop to 34 percent by the end of the year.
Long-Term Inflation and Interest Rate Scenarios
Both banks shared their projections that inflation and policy interest rates will gradually decline in the medium and long term.