Mahfi Eğilmez Warns Companies on Foreign Exchange Deficit and Currency Risk
Economist Mahfi Eğilmez stated that the real sector's net foreign exchange deficit has reached $210.8 billion, drawing attention to the impact of exchange rate increases on balance sheets.
In his latest article, economist Mahfi Eğilmez discussed the foreign exchange open positions of companies, emphasizing that the real sector's net foreign exchange deficit has reached $210.8 billion and drawing attention to the risks that exchange rate increases may pose.
Foreign Currency Debt and the Main Risk Factor
Economist Mahfi Eğilmez evaluated companies' foreign exchange open positions in an article published on his personal blog. Eğilmez stated that a company holding foreign currency debt does not pose a risk on its own, and that the real risk arises when foreign currency liabilities exceed foreign currency revenues.
Company Balance Sheets and Potential Impacts
Stating that a net foreign currency deficit occurs if a company has $30 million in foreign currency revenue against a $100 million foreign currency debt, Eğilmez noted that when the exchange rate rises, the Turkish Lira equivalent of the debt will increase, and if revenues do not increase at the same rate, the balance sheet will be adversely affected. It was noted that exchange rate increases could also raise credit risk.
Macroeconomic Dimension and the 2001 Crisis
Eğilmez said that foreign currency risk, which might be manageable for a single company, can turn into a macroeconomic risk if many companies carry open positions at the same time. Recalling that Turkey experienced a similar process during the 2001 crisis, Eğilmez stated that the foreign exchange deficit of the banking sector at that time was a major vulnerability factor.
Current Real Sector Data and Open Position
Stating that today's banking system has a different structure from the 2001 period, Eğilmez noted that this time, the foreign exchange open position of real sector companies has reached a striking level. According to CBRT data for July 2026, real sector firms have $401.2 billion in liabilities against $30 million—pardon, $190.4 billion in assets, and the net deficit stands at $210.8 billion.
Assessment as a Crisis Indicator
Eğilmez emphasized that the net deficit of $210.8 billion should not be viewed directly as a crisis indicator on its own. It was stated that companies' foreign currency revenues, export performances, debt maturities, and hedging instruments must be evaluated together.
Repayment Capacity and the Need for Monitoring
Stating that the real sector's foreign exchange deficit is an indicator that must be monitored closely, Eğilmez noted that the main risk is related to companies' capacity to roll over and repay their foreign currency debts in the face of potential increases in the exchange rate.