September data signals weak growth in the economy

Based on economist Atilla Yeşilada's analysis of September survey data excluding foreign trade, the Turkish economy shows a slight recovery compared to August, but the third-quarter period continues to follow a weak trajectory.

Third quarter and growth expectations

It is projected that the economy performed at least as weakly in the third quarter as it did in the second, with second and third-quarter growth rates expected to come in between zero and half a percent compared to the first quarter.

Consumer confidence and sectoral trends

Although September TUIK Consumer Confidence data reached an eight-year high, the correlation between these figures and actual spending continues to be debated.

While the seasonally adjusted capacity utilization rate and the Real Sector Confidence Index registered monthly increases, sectoral confidence indices point to a loss of momentum in domestic demand.

Credit volume and sectoral contractions

While total loans have maintained a flat trajectory at around thirty percent annually for about six months, commercial loans exhibit a slight recovery tendency.

Meanwhile, a contraction process has begun on an annual basis in credit cards and general consumer loans.

Annual growth and structural challenges

It is stated that the Turkish economy can grow by three percent at best this year, and this rate could slip down to two percent under potential crisis scenarios.

It is emphasized that the private sector's dynamic strength is diminishing along with the entrenchment of inflation expectations and the contraction of domestic demand.