Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and supply concerns push oil prices up
Developments in the Middle East and attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz have triggered concerns about prolonged disruptions in the oil market, driving barrel prices upward.
Mutual military attacks between the US and Iran in and around the Strait of Hormuz have heightened concerns that there will be prolonged disruptions in Middle East-sourced oil supplies, causing prices to rise.
Rise in Oil Prices
With the escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, oil prices continued their upward trend in global markets on Monday.
The barrel price of Brent crude rose by 0.54 percent to $96.80, while US crude (WTI) gained 0.72 percent to reach the $92.14 level.
Impact of Mutual Military Attacks
The US Central Command announced that three Iranian oil tankers were hit in operations carried out on Saturday, with one of them targeted off Khark Island.
The Navy of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated on the same day that three oil tankers proceeding on unauthorized routes in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as three US vessels in other regions, were targeted.
Changing Dynamics in Commercial Shipping
Maritime intelligence firm Marisks stated that Saturday's events marked a significant escalation in the maritime conflict and that commercial tankers began to be used as an instrument of economic pressure.
It was emphasized that this situation largely weakens the existing distinction between military conflict and commercial maritime transport.
Decline in Strait Traffic
According to data released by analysis firm Kpler, the average daily number of commodity vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz in the last 10 days fell to 10, seeing the lowest level since May.
According to information reflected in Iranian state media, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Mohsen Rezaei announced on Sunday that a restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz would be declared in the coming days.
OPEC+ Production Policy
OPEC+, at its meeting on Sunday, decided not to make any changes to its oil production policy for October.
In the statement made by the group, it was stated that an agreement must first be reached on new quotas in order to take new production steps.
Long-Term Market Expectations
ANZ analysts noted in a published report that a protracted stalemate continuing with controlled military interventions by the parties is the most likely scenario.
This situation is expected to delay the full recovery of Middle East oil supplies and keep exports restricted until the end of 2026.