Trust in Official Economic Data in Turkey and TÜİK Debates
The deep distrust experienced across society due to the lack of transparency in TÜİK data and its mismatch with household perception, along with proposed solutions, is examined.
The issue of trust in official economic data in Turkey, particularly regarding the inflation and unemployment rates announced by TÜİK, is being addressed. It is emphasized that while the CPI coming out at 1.84 percent in August and September 2026 may be mathematically possible, distrust is at its peak due to a lack of transparency, the non-disclosure of item price lists, and the gap between household and official data.
Distrust Toward Official Institution Data
In authoritarian and totalitarian regimes, the restriction of citizen rights makes the obscuring of data and information an unwritten duty of official institutions. This situation creates a widespread belief among the public that economic data is manipulated. When it comes to inflation and unemployment, distrust toward the data of the Turkish Statistical Institute reaches its highest level.
Sequential Matching of Inflation Data and Statistical Reality
The announced September inflation data coming out identical to the August data, with the CPI being 1.84 percent in both months, was met with suspicion. However, it is statistically possible for the weighted average of consumer baskets containing hundreds of sub-items to be the same two months in a row. In August 2026, annual inflation was 31.51 percent, while it receded to the 30.16 percent level in September.
Item Price List and Transparency Debates
Although the probability of consecutive equal rates decreases in countries with high inflation rates, rounding rules can produce these results. The real fundamental problem is the widespread lack of trust in TÜİK's data. The institution has not published the average item price list since June 2022 and refuses to share this data despite court rulings favoring lawsuits filed.
Class-based Divergences in Inflation Expectations
Serious class-based divergences in inflation expectations draw attention. In September, 12-month inflation expectations materialized at 23.7 percent for market participants, 32.5 percent for the real sector, and 45.6 percent for households. The data collected by TÜİK and basket weights do not match the inflation felt by households.
Necessary Steps to Restore Trust
To restore trust, TÜİK needs to publish the item price list, open its database to researchers, and include independent academics in calculation commissions. Furthermore, transitioning to a barcode data system and endowing the institution with a truly autonomous structure are being demanded.