US Consumers' Short-Term Inflation Expectations Rise
According to survey results conducted in September in the US, households' short-term median inflation expectation reached its highest level since May 2023.
Short-term inflation expectations among consumers in the US rose to 3.9 percent in September, reaching the highest level since May 2023.
Increase in Short-Term Inflation Expectations
The results of the Survey of Consumer Expectations, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, have been released. According to the research conducted with the participation of approximately 1,300 households, the median inflation expectation for the next 12 months increased by 0.3 percentage points.
With this increase, short-term inflation expectations reached 3.9 percent, marking the highest level recorded since May 2023.
Medium and Long-Term Expectations
According to the survey results, consumers' long-term inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3 percent.
Medium-term inflation expectations increased by 0.1 percentage points, rising back to 3.3 percent.
Changes Observed in the Labor Market
A limited improvement was observed in expectations regarding the labor market. The proportion of those in the US believing that the unemployment rate will be higher a year from now decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 43.9 percent.
Additionally, the average expectation of losing one's job over the next 12 months dropped by 0.3 percentage points to 13.5 percent.
Income and Spending Growth Expectations
The median growth expectation for household income increased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.1 percent.
Meanwhile, the growth expectation for nominal household spending one year ahead recorded an increase of 0.3 percentage points, reaching 5.5 percent.