Lula Leads in Polls Ahead of Brazil's Presidential Election

The latest polls published ahead of Sunday's first-round vote in Brazil reveal that incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva holds a slight advantage over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro.

Electoral Process and Runoff Probability

If no candidate wins more than 50% of the valid votes in Sunday's first round, the top two candidates will compete in a runoff vote scheduled for October 25.

CNT/MDA Poll Results

According to polling data conducted by MDA, Lula is projected to take 47.8% of the valid votes in the first round, while Bolsonaro received 42.1% support. In a runoff simulation, Lula reached 47.3% and Bolsonaro obtained 43.1% of the vote.

Datafolha Research Data

In a study conducted by Datafolha, Lula's vote share for the first round was measured at 45%, and Bolsonaro's at 42%. In a possible second-round scenario, the two figures' vote shares stood at 47% and 46%, respectively.

Quaest and AtlasIntel Findings

The Quaest poll showed Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 45% in the first round, while an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll put Lula at 47% and Bolsonaro at 44.1%.