Strengthening of the Super El Niño Event and Expected Global Impacts
While the probability of a strong super El Niño event exceeds 90 percent, experts draw attention to its potential impacts on food, energy, supply chains, and disaster management.
According to Climate Prediction Center data, the probability of an extremely strong super El Niño event occurring has risen above 90 percent. Experts state that during the October-December 2026 period, a historic era could unfold that might surpass the strength of previous events seen since 1950.
Probability of a Super El Niño Increased
According to data released by the Climate Prediction Center, the probability of a very strong super El Niño event occurring has exceeded 90 percent.
Evaluations show that this event could become one of the strongest El Nino processes recorded to date.
Expectation of a Historic Season
For the October-December 2026 period, a historic level is anticipated that will surpass the strength of all previous El Nino events measured from 1950 to the present.
Columbia Climate School experts state that this extraordinary period will lead to lesser-known but profound impacts across five different areas.
Global Food Prices May Rise
Analyses conducted by Goldman Sachs reveal that an increase of approximately 16 percent could be seen in global food commodity prices.
The World Food Programme, meanwhile, projects that at least 49 million people could face acute food insecurity by the end of 2027.
Volatility in Energy Markets
An increase in energy demand for cooling and threats to hydroelectric and wind energy resources are expected.
This situation is estimated to lead to notable volatility and supply imbalances in energy markets.
Bottlenecks Experienced in the Supply Chain
Low water levels in critical waterways like the Panama Canal could bring environmental-driven shipping bottlenecks.
These disruptions in transportation routes are expected to adversely affect global trade flows and supply chains.
Extreme Heat Danger in Cities
Densely populated urban areas are becoming more vulnerable to extreme heat waves that could affect billions of people.
It is emphasized that this situation directly threatens 1.7 billion people living in major cities in terms of heat exposure.
Difficulties Experienced in Disaster Management
Large-scale disasters coinciding with the same period could strain resources and mutual aid mechanisms.
Along with reductions in FEMA's workforce and resources, it is stated that disaster response capacity could face serious challenges.