Arab Voter Turnout in Israeli Elections and Netanyahu's Political Future

Palestinian leaders in Israel are inviting the minority Arab community to turn out in high numbers in the upcoming election in order to remove Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from office and bring down the country's most right-wing government in history. High participation at the ballot box by the Arab minority, who make up 21% of the population, could affect the coalition arithmetic of the anti-Netanyahu bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.

Mansour Abbas, leader of the United Arab List party, stated in an interview with Reuters at his office in Nazareth that change could pave the way for the formation of a new government. Opinion polls indicate that Eisenkot's bloc—comprising centrist, right-wing, and left-wing parties—could win the most votes but fall short of a majority, requiring Arab support either as a coalition partner or through external backing. Conversely, Eisenkot has stated that he will not form a government with Arab parties, citing a lack of shared values.

The Stat-Net Research Institute expects Arab voter turnout in this election to reach 63%, compared to 56% in 2022. Ahmad Tibi, one of the leaders of the Joint List, noted that their groups are prepared to form a blocking majority by providing outside support. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Netanyahu's campaign is attempting to mobilize its voter base by using artificial intelligence-generated videos and images depicting his rivals embracing Arab leaders.