Economist Seltem İyigün's analysis on CBRT's October 22 rate decision and market expectations

Economist Seltem İyigün stated that, in line with liquidity conditions in the market and developments in inflation, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey may go for a 100 basis point rate cut on October 22.

Rate Cut Expectation

Economist Seltem İyigün stated that the tightening of liquidity conditions in the market, the slow course in domestic demand, and annual inflation falling below 30 percent provide room for maneuver to the Central Bank. İyigün noted that she expects a 100 basis point cut at the October 22 meeting.

Making evaluations regarding the path of the policy rate, İyigün emphasized that it is likely for interest rates to be pulled down to the 35 percent level by the end of this year, and to the 28-30 percent range next year.

Disinflation Process

Finding the decline of inflation figures below 30 percent positive, İyigün expressed that the sub-breakdowns do not yet point to a comfortable disinflation process. She conveyed that price inertia in the transportation and services sector limits the decline.

Weakening in Industrial Production

Reminding that industrial production declined by 19 percent annually and 1 percent monthly in August 2026, İyigün stated that high financing costs, difficulties in accessing credit, and the slowdown in domestic demand were effective in this picture.

Global Risk Factors

Among the closely monitored risks in the global economic outlook are US 10-year Treasury yields, supply chain disruptions at critical straits, and the policy steps of the US Federal Reserve.