Global Commodity Prices to Rise in 2026, According to World Bank Report

According to the World Bank's October Commodity Markets Outlook report, global commodity prices are expected to increase by 23.1 percent in 2026 and decline by 7 percent in 2027 due to conflicts and supply issues in the Middle East and the Black Sea.

Global commodity markets remain under the influence of multiple supply shocks, as the war in the Middle East complicates oil and natural gas supplies, and shipment issues in the Black Sea increase risks in agricultural products. Ayhan Köse, World Bank Deputy Chief Economist, emphasizes that markets are facing multiple major shocks simultaneously.

In food commodities, amid Black Sea shipment disruptions, the El Niño weather event, and high fertilizer and fuel costs, increases of 10.3 percent in 2026 and 7.2 percent in 2027 are expected, while the total rise across the two years is projected to reach approximately 18 percent.

In industrial metals, thanks to supply disruptions and strong demand driven by the energy transition, a price increase of 24.5 percent is projected for 2026, while metal prices are expected to decline by 3.3 percent in 2027. Precious metal prices are projected to surge by 39.9 percent in 2026 as geopolitical and policy uncertainties keep safe-haven demand alive.

Global energy prices are expected to increase by 32 percent in 2026, following a three-year decline, reaching their highest level since 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. Brent crude is projected to average $91 in 2026, while European natural gas is forecast to average $19.