Moody's: Slow Growth Period in Global Economy to Last Until 2028
Moody's Ratings projects that global economic growth will decline to 2.6 percent in 2026 and remain at a slow pace until 2028. Inflation is expected to ease due to anticipated declines in oil prices, and central banks are expected to follow limited tightening policies.
According to the latest macroeconomic outlook report published by Moody's Ratings, global economic growth is expected to decline from 2.8 percent in 2025 to 2.6 percent in 2026 and maintain this slow growth pace until 2028.
While advanced economies are projected to grow by approximately 1.7 percent in 2027, growth in emerging markets is estimated to slow from 4.5 percent in 2025 to around 4 percent in 2027.
The agency anticipates that oil prices will hover near the upper limit of the 90-110 dollar per barrel range after peaking, and will begin to decline from mid-2027, easing headline inflation. In line with this expectation, central banks are expected to take limited tightening steps rather than comprehensive interest rate hikes.
In the technology sector, capital expenditures of large-scale cloud computing companies are estimated to remain at the 1 trillion dollar level in 2027. However, the annual growth rate of investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure is expected to fall from 100 percent in 2026 to 25 percent in 2027, which will cause the support these expenditures provide to economic growth to diminish.
Sources
- ekonomim.com · Link