January 2027 Pension and Civil Servant Salary Increase Rate Calculations

Calculations for the January 2027 raise for retirees and civil servants have begun to take shape in line with announced inflation expectations. According to the Financial Institutions Association's October 2026 Economic Outlook Expectation Survey, the year-end inflation forecast was determined as 30.06 percent, and based on this data, potential increase rates for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees as well as civil servant salaries were calculated.

For the retiree raise to be made in January 2027, the three-month CPI data covering July, August, and September stood at 5.57 percent. While remaining inflation data for October, November, and December are awaited, year-end forecasts from various institutions revealed different raise scenarios. Despite the Central Bank's forecast of 28 percent, the Medium-Term Program's (OVP) forecast of 28.4 percent, and the AA Inflation Expectation Survey's forecast of 29.66 percent, the Financial Institutions Association's year-end inflation forecast of 30.06 percent stood out as the strongest scenario. Based on this forecast, the second six-month inflation was calculated as 10.45 percent, and it was projected that SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees could receive a raise in line with this rate in January 2027.

If the current lowest retiree base salary of 23,552 TL is reflected with an increase of 10.45 percent, it is calculated that this figure will rise to the level of 26,013 TL. Civil servants and retired civil servants will receive an increase through collective bargaining raises and inflation differences. With a 5 percent collective bargaining raise and a 3.55 percent inflation difference calculated according to the Financial Institutions Association data, the total raise rate is estimated to be 8.3 percent. While this rate is expected to bring the lowest civil servant salary to 76,053 TL and the retired civil servant pension to 34,144 TL, the 65-year-old pension, home care support, disability pensions, and chronic illness aid will also be increased at the same rate.