Market Analysis from Şirin Sarı: Record Expectation in Gold and Foreign Exchange Forecasts

Stating that the high interest rate environment and US Dollar yield are exerting pressure on gold prices, market analyst Şirin Sarı shared her expectations for the ounce gold and foreign exchange market.

Şirin Sarı stated that the $4,000 - $4,100 level is an important technical support for ounce gold. Emphasizing that if it finds support from these levels, a rise towards the $4,400 - $4,500 and $4,650 levels could occur in the short term, Sarı noted that this movement could bring about the 7,200 - 7,300 TL band on the gram gold side. She stated that if resistance is encountered at the $4,600 levels and the direction turns downward, the probability of gold declining to the $3,500 level is 60% higher.

Pointing out that the upcoming 7-8 month period could be a correction and painful transition period, Sarı conveyed that portfolios should be balanced with foreign currency or TL deposits in this process. Envisioning that gold will regain momentum starting from mid-2027 with the effect of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate cut steps and global risks, Sarı stated that following base formation in the $3,500 - $4,000 range, new records towards the $6,000 - $7,000 levels could be seen in ounce gold.

Stating that there is no panic dollarization or excessive demand on the foreign exchange side, Şirin Sarı expressed that the US Dollar/TL exchange rate is expected to hover in the 51 - 52 TL band at the end of the year and in the 58 - 60 TL band at the end of 2027. Regarding the Euro/dollar parity, she noted that the weak trend may continue due to economic stagnation and energy costs in Europe, and pullbacks down to the 1.06 level could occur following the 1.09 support.

Explaining that gold demand in the Grand Bazaar is quite weak and international market prices are trading $300 - $400 below per kilogram (at a minus premium), Sarı evaluated that if gram gold reaches the 7,200 - 7,300 TL band, investors may act toward profit-taking and cashing out rather than buying. In addition, she projected that high-running TL deposit interest rates maintain their appeal and the source emerging from here in the coming period could shift to the real estate sector.